Saturday, July 12, 2008

For my next trick, I will pull a statistical probability out of my ass!

I read a blog post on a non-related site by a creationist claiming that the odds of life appearing randomly on Earth were a mere 1 in 10^63. He went on to say that for the less-intelligent among us, that was a 1 followed by 63 zeros. Thanks, dude. So of course, he continues, it just isn't possible that life appeared without a creator. Interestingly, he then used it to also suggest, no, assert that we are alone in the Universe, because god created us, and there is no chance of life appearing randomly anywhere else. No thought seemed to have been given to whether or not his god could have created life on other planets, too.

Anyways, this is complete bullshit. We only have one sample of a planet capable of supporting life, that's ours. And we only have one sample of life forming, which is also ours. In fact, the only reason we can even be sure that our planet can support life, is that we see it all around. At this stage, we really don't know if other planets are capable of supporting life.

One cannot make a statistical calculation based on a sample of 1! The truth is, we have absolutely no idea what the odds are of life appearing on a planet. The creationist nut says it's 10^-63. Frank Drake, creator of the famous Drake Equation, put the odds at exactly 1. That is, Drake suggested if a planet is capable of supporting life, it is inevitable that life will appear. So we have quite the discrepancy there, don't we? Odds of 1 compared with odds of 10^-63.

Until we get more samples of planets that we believe could support life, and determine whether or not they do have life, any probability that you suggest is just as valid as one that anybody else suggests. The only limits are that the probability must be greater than (assuming life on Earth is natural) or equal (assuming life on Earth has supernatural origins) to zero, and less than or equal to 1. Either way, you just pulled a guess right out of your ass, and therefore may not use it to support your case. That is intellectual dishonesty.

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

i need to remember this one i lsughed so hard i cried, cannot make a statistucal calculation based on one

Anonymous said...

dismissing the statisitcal probability of life starting by chance (1 chance in 10*63) as "bullshit is not based on anything you offer other than "bullshit". The laws of probability are accepted and used everywhere in science. Due to life's extreme complexity probability is a reasonable tool to use to estimate life's chances of appearing one day by chance out of rocks and twigs as atheists are forced to support. Saying that using probability to estimate the possibility is Bullshit comes from a small mind or a prejudiced mind.
Certainly not from a scientist.
Your right, we do not know how life was created scientifically. We do know that the oddss of it just appearing by chance one day are 1 in 10*63.

Paul Evers said...

well that seems to be all your capable of...laughing and making jokes instead of presenting facts and scientific comment.

But then again its very difficult for an atheist to rely on facts and science in their arguments.

Admin said...

Wow, that last anonymous poster is trying to sound scientific, but I'm not buying it at all.

".... probability is a reasonable tool to use to estimate life's chances of appearing one day by chance out of rocks and twigs as atheists are forced to support."

Life came form rocks and twigs? Do you know what twigs are?

"Saying that using probability to estimate the possibility is Bullshit comes from a small mind or a prejudiced mind."

I didn't write that at all, now did I? I wrote that the number that has been cited has no foundation, and is arbitrary. You're not a good reader, I can tell.

"We do know that the oddss of it just appearing by chance one day are 1 in 10*63."

NO, WE DO NOT KNOW THIS! Cite your source! Find me the currently-accepted scientific paper that has determined that this is the chance of life appearing naturally on Earth. Go ahead, I'll wait.

Admin said...

"well that seems to be all your capable of...laughing and making jokes instead of presenting facts and scientific comment."

Did you read the post or not? You don't think there is an argument in there? Did you only read the title?

"But then again its very difficult for an atheist to rely on facts and science in their arguments."

Are you for real? This is one of the stupidest statements I've ever read on this site. It makes me think you're joking or are a troll.